Quantitative Analyst - Prediction Markets

3 hours, 40 minutes ago
Full-time
Junior
Data Science and Analytics
Moreton CP

Moreton CP

Moreton Capital Partners captures inefficiencies across global energy, metals, and agricultural markets using agentic AI, LLMs, and machine learning — backed by 8 years of quantitative research and institutional-grade risk management.

Diversified Financial Services

Description

  • Conduct quantitative research to identify new alpha signals across prediction market categories including sports, macro, political, financial, and environmental events.
  • Own the end-to-end research process with the Portfolio Manager, including data sourcing and ingestion, exploratory analysis, methodology design, implementation, backtesting, and live performance evaluation.
  • Build and maintain data pipelines using alternative and traditional sources such as market microstructure, public resolution data, news and sentiment feeds, sports analytics databases, and fundamental datasets.
  • Develop and improve models for fair value estimation, calibration analysis, and systematic strategy construction.
  • Extend MCP’s internal research platform, including tools, libraries, and workflows that support faster and more rigorous research.
  • Maintain a systematic review of academic and practitioner literature relevant to prediction markets, sports analytics, Bayesian forecasting, and related areas.
  • Produce clear, structured research outputs, including documented methodology, performance attribution, and actionable recommendations for traders.

Requirements

  • Undergraduate or postgraduate degree from a strong institution in data science, computer science, mathematics, statistics, operations research, financial engineering, or a closely related quantitative field.
  • Strong Python skills, including pandas, NumPy, and scikit-learn, plus experience building backtesting or research frameworks from scratch.
  • Solid foundation in statistics, probability, time-series analysis, and machine learning, with the ability to apply these rigorously.
  • Demonstrated interest in prediction markets through personal trading, research, protocol analysis, or similar engagement.
  • Ability to work independently and take full ownership of a research workstream.
  • Two or more years of experience in a data-driven research environment focused on model development and forecasting, though exceptional early-career candidates may be considered.
  • Familiarity with Polymarket and/or Kalshi mechanics, resolution data, and API access.
  • Experience with NLP, sentiment analysis, or unstructured data processing in financial or event-driven contexts.
  • Comfort with agentic AI frameworks and LLM-based research tooling.
  • Knowledge of Bayesian methods and their application to probability calibration and forecast updating.
  • Experience with blockchain data or on-chain analytics tools relevant to decentralised prediction market platforms.

Benefits

  • Base salary commensurate with experience.
  • Performance-linked bonus.
  • Applications are reviewed on a rolling basis.
  • Opportunity to work on a ground-up dedicated prediction markets fund with direct access to senior decision-makers.

Interested in this position?

Apply directly on the company website

Apply Now

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